CCS as a weapon against climate change

Humanity is facing its greatest challenge. Our energy production is dominated by fossil fuels, and if the emissions from using these fuels continue, the results will be dramatic. Among the consequences will be the melting of polar ice and rising sea levels, flooding and harsher weather, loss of plant and animal species diversity and loss of tropical forests, and adverse effects on food and water supply. Even the common goal of Norway and the EU of limiting global warming to 2°C will not mitigate serious effects on ecosystems and regions of Earth, and considerably higher Arctic temperatures.

Energy production is dominated by fossil energy sources. The next decade’s prognoses foresee a considerable expansion in the global energy requirements. During the same period a reduction of 80 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to avoid the most severe consequences of the anthropogenic climate changes. Are these reductions possible without the measure of capture and storage of carbon?

Contents

1. Global warming 

    1.1 Consequences

    1.2 Distribution of greenhouse gas emissions

    1.3 Prognoses for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

2. How to achieve necessary reductions

3. Great capacity on large emission sources

4. Conclusion: carbon capture and storage is necessary

5. See also

6. External links

7. References

Global warming 

In climate change, humanity is facing one of its greatest challenges. It is closely connected to consumption of fossil energy. Increasing consumption of oil, coal and gas has led to considerable increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, compared to pre-industrial levels. In addision to emissions from agriculture and changes in land use, these emissions have triggered global warming. The situation will be severely deteriorated if changes are not made too the current system. (IPCC 2007b)

The UN established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. IPCC does not carry out research on its own, its main activity being the evaluation of available research on climate change. Its first report was presented in 1990 and warned of the consequences of global warming. Subsequently, the scientific foundation for the existence of anthropogenic climate change has improved and the IPCC has been able to improve their prognoses of future changes and their causes.

Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420 000 years. (Source: GRIDA)

Their fourth report, published in 2007, concludes that greater parts of the increase in global average temperature since the middle of the 20th century is most likely caused by increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The IPCC has thus concluded with a higher degree of certainty than ever, that the climate is changing, and that human activity is to blame. The precision in their predictions on the future effects of climate change has also increased. Emissions of greenhouse gases at a level equal to or higher than today will lead to a greater increase in temperatures in the 21st century than in the 20th. The IPCC predicts that in the period 1990–2100 the global average temperature will increase with 1.4 to 5.8 °C due to human activity. Differences in the estimates are partly due to the uncertainty as to how global climate systems work, but the main source of uncertainty is emission prospects. The global warming and rising of sea levels will continue for decades, even if the concentration of greenhouse gases is stabilized immediately. (IPCC 2007d)

Consequences

Temperature and CO2 concentration 1880-2000 (Source: zfacts)

A maximum increase of 2°C demands immediate and extensive reduction of emissions but does not mitigate the most serious consequences of the global warming. A 2°C rise in the global average temperature means significantly higher increases in certain regions; the Arctic will experience an increase of about 5 to 7 degrees due to accelerating heating mechanisms. The Greenland ice contains millions of gallons of water, and with a temperature rise of 3°C the melting of this ice cap will cause a two meter global sea level rising. From 1979 to 2005 the world has seen a 20 per cent reduction of sea ice in the Arctic. The region’s summer ice will most probably disappear this century, with dramatic consequences for species like the polar bear, from whom the Arctic gets its name (the Greek name for bear is arktos).

 The less ambitious goal of limiting temperature increase to 3-4°C requires CO2 levels to stabilize at 450 ppm and greenhouse gases to 550 ppm CO2e. A committee assigned by the Norwegian government has concluded that even such a goal would require Norway and other industrialised countries to reduce their emissions by 2/3 by the end of the century (NOU 2006).

For the IPCC’s fourth assessment report, a work group appointed by the panel made an updated analysis of the consequences, adaptations and vulnerabilities for different ecosystems and regions. The higher the global temperature, the more dramatic are the consequences and fewer the possibilities of adaptation.

WIthin this century the quantity of water stored in glaziers and snow will be reduced. This will dramatically reduce access to water in regions with mountainous water supplies. One out of six people on Earth live in such regions. 75-250 million people in Africa will experience a similar loss in access to drinking water because of the changing climate. The Himalayas will be exposed to frequent floods, and fresh water quality and access will be adversely affected within the next two or three decades. Central and south-eastern parts of Asia will experience reduced availability to drinking water and parallel rapid population growth, causing a billion people to be severely affected.

Probably around 20-30 per cent of all plant and animal species will be exposed to greater risk of extinction with a rise in temperatures of 1.5 to 2.5 °C. Such an increase in temperatures will lead to immense changes in the structure and functions of ecosystems, with a negative impact on biological diversity and food and water supplies. A rise in temperatures will convert tropical rainforests in to savannah in the eastern parts of the Amazon.

On the global level the IPCC predicts an increase in food production in certain regions due to local rise in average temperatures between 1 and 3 °C. However, this impact will vary strongly from region to region, and greater increases in temperatures will lead to a decrease in the overall food production. The occurrence of droughts and floods will have a negative impact on local raw material producers. Africa will experience a decrease in areas suitable for agriculture and the growth season will be compressed. This continent is also one of the most exposed to degradation of food security, since the increase in water temperatures in the great lakes will cause damage to fisheries. Southern Europe will also see a fall agricultural output with rising temperatures.

Coastal areas are at risk of erosion and rising sea levels. Each year, millions of people experience floods caused by rising sea levels. Adaptations to climate change are particularly challenging in coastal regions in developing countries, where lack of resources decrease the number of practical options.

The health condition of millions of people will be affected by climate change through increased malnutrition, mortality rates and illnesses caused by heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts, and also through a possible increase in the spread of certain diseases. Central and Eastern Europe are among regions at risk of experiencing increased frequencies in severe heat waves.

Distribution of greenhouse gas emissions

Distribution of greenhouse gas emissions (Source: IPCC)

The large emissions of CO2, and the fact that it remains in the atmosphere for a long time, makes CO2 the greenhouse gas with the largest impact on the global climate. From 1970 to 2004 the emissions of greenhouse gases (including all gases regulated by the Kyoto Protocol, namely CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC and SF6) increased from 28.7Gt to 49Gt CO2 equivalents. Within the same time span, the emissions of CO2 increased by 80 per cent.

The Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in 1997, requires the industrial countries (the Annex 1 countries) to reduce theirtotal emissions of greenhouse gases. Undeveloped and newly industrialized countries on the other hand have no obligations to reduce their emissions. By 2004, the industrialized countries constituted 20 percent of the world population and were responsible for 46 percent of global emissions of greenhouse gases. By contrast, undeveloped and newly industrialized countries, accounting for 80 percent of the world population, were responsible for only 54 percent of the emissions (IPCC 2007b).

Even though emissions per capita in undeveloped countries are much lower than those of industrialized countries, the emission growth in undeveloped and newly industrialized countries is very fast.

Global emissions by sector (Source: IPCC)

China has the greatest increase, but has no obligations within the Kyoto Protocol. In 2002 Chinese greenhouse gas emissions exceeded those of the USA, and the country is now statistically responsible for 18.7 percent of global emissions. However, the emissions per capita are considerably higher in industrialized countries, and in this rating China is still relatively low (IPCC 2007c).

So far the energy sector has contributed the largest growth in global emissions: 145 percent since 1970. Within the same period the emissions from the transport sector increased by 120 per cent and industrial emissions by 65 per cent (IPCC 2007a).

80 per cent of the world’s energy supply comes from fossil energy, while renewable energy sources constitute only 13.2 percent. Wind and solar energy are the fastest growing renewables at over 30 percent a year, but the basis for this growth is very low. For the last few decades renewable energy consumption has increased at the same relative speed as total consumption, leaving the renewables with a virtually equal share. Nuclear power has expanded its share by 4 percent, reducing the share of fossil energy equally. 

Table 1: Global energy production, by source (Source: IEA2006b)

Prognoses for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

The next decades will see a continuing rise in emissions of greenhouse gases if no significant policy changes are adopted. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that fossil energy will continue to dominate international energy consumption for the next decades. By 2030 the IEA expects an increase in energy demand of 50 per cent over the 2006 level. 70 per cent of this increase is ascribed to developing countries, China alone being responsible for 30 per cent. The growth in renewable energy on the other hand is expected to be less than 400 TWh/year, with bioenergy being the fastest grower (IEA 2006b).

IPCC has made different scenarios estimating future emissions based on present climate policies. They predict an increase in global primary energy demand of 40 to 150 per cent until 2030 with an even bigger increase in consumption of electricity. The allocation between renewable and fossil energy will not change significantly, but as total energy consumption increases so will the total amount of fossil energy. This will eventually lead to a rise in greenhouse gas emissions of 25 to 90 percent from 2000 to 2030 (IPCC 2007a, IPCC 2007b).

Table 2: The IEA reference scenario - share of fossil and renewable energy (Source: IEA)

The expanding economies of developing countries are an important source of the expected increase of energy requirements and emissions. Between ⅔ and ¾ of increased emissions will take place in undeveloped and newly industrialized countries. However, emissions per capita in industrialized countries (10-15 tons CO2/ capita) will remain considerably higher than in undeveloped and newly industrialized countries (3-5 tons) in 2030 (IPCC 2007a, IPCC 2007c).

How to achieve necessary reductions

Emissions of greenhouse gases must be considerably reduced. In order to limit the increase in global average temperatures to 2°C, the global emissions must be stabilized immediately and cut by 55 to 80 per cent within 2050. Even a 2°C increase will have a severe impact on many ecosystems and certain regions. 

Prognoses show significant increases in the emissions of CO2. Of course, prognoses are only predictions made on the assumption that today’s national and international energy policies will not change significantly. Therefore, it is possible to imagine more aggressive climate initiatives to lead to a higher involvement on all parts in renewable energy. In addition to this more sensible energy conservation policies are imaginable, leaving more space for energy consumption in developing countries. 

From an environmental point of view the highest priority is a reduction of the emissions as swiftly as possible. The question, therefore, is whether it is possible to cover the growing demand for energy with renewable sources alone or if increased energy efficiency can stop the growth by 2030. And secondly whether it is possible to achieve substantial reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases based on renewable energy and increased energy efficiency alone by 2030. The following calculations are based on the most far reaching prognosis in the IEA report, which predicts energy trends until 2030 (IEA 2006b).

In order for renewable energy to cover the expected growth in total energy consumption by the year 2030 its growth will have to be seven times higher than projected by IEA. A large part of this will have to come from sources other than hydropower and bio energy, as they have already been widely exploited. This will require a growth 25 times greater than projected, and a yearly growth four times larger than the total present (2004) consumption of renewable energy.

If all fossil energy is to be replaced by renewable energy the challenge is even greater. This will require 6.5 times more hydropower and bio energy than the present production, and a growth in total renewable energy production 300 times greater than IEA projections. If this is to be covered by other renewable energy sources a production 170 times higher than the present level is necessary, requiring production to grow more than a thousand times faster than projected.

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy source besides hydropower and bio energy. In Europe, the leading region in wind power development, about 15 TWh of new wind power was established in 2006, and total wind power generation is at approximately 100 TWh. To cover the growth in energy consumption, 180 times the wind power installed in 2006 will be required, and to replace all fossil energy with wind power, the multiplier is 7 700.

The growth in global energy consumption can be reduced by increasing focus on energy efficiency. Although this method of reducing growth in emissions is very efficient it is highly unlikely to match the expected growth in total energy consumption in developing countries. The ambition should be to reduce global energy consumption growth as much as possible by the use of energy conservation. Industrial countries in particular, should be able to reduce their energy consumption in this way. 

However, halting the growth in global energy consumption is only part of the solution. Even the present use of fossil fuels is far too high to be sustainable and must be replaced by renewable alternatives. Developing 7 700 times more renewable energy than the current supply of wind power in Europe within the next decades is highly unlikely even with a massive change in energy policy. We therefore conclude that even given huge efforts towards developing renewable power and energy conservation solutions, huge amounts of fossil fuels will still be consumed in the decades to come. To achieve the necessary emission cuts, other measures are needed. 

Great capacity on large emission sources

Carbon capture and storage from fossil power plants and industry will enable reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise go straight into the atmosphere. It will serve as a decisive addition to the use of renewable energy and increased energy efficiency in cutting emissions fast and efficiently.

Carbon capture can be done from large point sources, for example fossil power plants and industry with heavy carbon emissions (IPCC 2005a). In the longer term, carbon capture can reduce emissions in the transport sector, by changing from petroleum fuels to electric and/or hydrogen fuels for vehicles (IPCC 2005a).

The technology can be applied on any emission source where carbon emission is limited to one fixed geographical point, so called point sources. In 2005, a workgroup assigned by the IPCC presented a report on carbon capture and storage (IPCC 2005a). This rapport identifies 7500 large point sources.

Table 3: Global large point sources (Source: IPCC 2005a)

Both economic models and energy models predict that carbon capture and storage will be the most effective contribution to emission cuts in the energy sector (IPCC 2005a). The large point sources are dispersed over the entire globe, but four regions stand out: North-America, North Western Europe, the east coast of South-East Asia, and the Indian subcontinent. In the coming century the number of large point sources is assumed to rise, especially in south and south-eastern parts of Asia. The number of sources for carbon capture and storage in Europe will however decrease slightly (IPCC2005b).

In their analysis from 2007 the IPCC emphasizes carbon capture and storage as a key technology to enable cuts in the emissions from energy production and the industry. The most ambitious scenarios strongly recommend carbon capture and storage in addition to increased focus on non-fossil energy sources, to decrease emissions and thus reduce the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (2007a). 

Conclusion: carbon capture and storage is necessary

Main articles: Carbon capture and storage is necessary in Norway

Important and familiar solutions to the climate challenge include changing from fossil to renewable energy sources such as wind, bioenergy and solar, and measures to increase the energy efficiency and reduce the demand for energy. As this report has shown the fossil energy consumption remains high, and unless current energy policies change the growth in consumption will skyrocket. Increased energy efficiency may slow the growth, and a further commitment to renewable energy might be fruitful. Nevertheless, these measures are not sufficient to prevent climate change. Fossil energy consumption will most likely continue to expand, and we should strive to make this energy emission-free. In this regard carbon capture and storage is decisive to enable cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases. Due to the slow phase-out of fossil energy, carbon capture, renewable energy and increased energy efficiency are all needed to solve the problem of climate change.

See also

External links

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage
• CO2NET: Carbon Dioxide Sharing Network

References

IEA, 2006b, World energy outlook 2006, International Energy Agency, OECD Publication Service, OECD, Paris

IPCC 2005a Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Special Report. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC 2005b IPCC Special Report. Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC 2007a- Working Group III contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change Summary for policymakers